What are the predictions for the transport sector development in 2022/2023 and what are the main problems facing it?
It depends on whether the pandemic is over or not and the structuring of the business processes according to the new reality.
Since May, there has been a significant increase in consumption, which has a positive effect on the sector. We believe the trend will continue next year, predicting 2022 to mark one of the best years for the sector.
This explosive growth and increased demand also brought some negatives. One of the main components affecting the cost of the transport service is fuel, which only within 2021 saw a price increase of over 50% (from BGN 1.60/l to BGN 2.50/l). Our analysis shows that this price will remain the same for the first few months of next year, and then a drop in the fuel prices will follow.
The second essential component forming a successful service is manpower. The economy growth has resulted in almost zero unemployment, which has made it extremely difficult for the sector to provide quality service. This reflects on the salary increase in the sector and will continue to have an impact in 2022.
These two components, forming more than 50% of the value of the logistics service, led to an increase in the market prices.
In order to adapt to the new reality as quickly as possible, in Muvio Logistics we reviewed all our business processes in detail and made the necessary changes, which even includes robotizing some of the processes. In this way, we were able to increase our efficiency and remain strong competitors.
Despite all these factors, our expectations for 2022 are to note a 15% grow in the sector compared to 2021.
The ongoing pandemic, the increase in the number of infections among the population and the low levels of vaccination add an additional pressure. The constant introduction or cancellation of additional requirements to the restrictive measures forced the businesses to sometimes act in a chaotic way and also change their work patterns, which does not contribute to the provision of a high-quality service.
What are the expectations for the next year according to the Recovery Plan for the sector? What are the new (and possible) EC regulations?
Ivan Ivanchev, distribution and transport manager at "Muvio Logistics":
Тhe part of the plan related to electric mobility is the most interesting one for the private sector, referring to urban supply of goods. Investments in this direction and the development of the auto-electric industry will increase the interest of the private sector to invest in electric vehicles, which will have a positive effect not only on the environment, but also on the value of the provided service, using an alternative to the conventional fuels.
On a national level, a construction of infrastructures with about 10 000 public charging points for electric vehicles is planned, which will certainly improve accessibility and increase the use of this type of vehicle.
This is planned to happen in the long term (6 years), and yet I think the first steps in this direction will be taken next year.
As the infrastructure develops, Muvio Logistics will begin a gradual replacement of its car fleet by investing in electric vehicles. This has been predicted to happen as early as next year.
One of the EU's focuses is reducing the carbon footprint that all industries leave on the environment.
The new regulations will be related to the economy standards of vehicles used in the EU.
In the current times, each state independently introduces different regulations related to the economy standards of vehicles on its territory.
I expect that within the next 10 years, the EU will introduce a general regulation for everybody in the EU, which will significantly limit or even ban the use of cars with economy standards lower than the current highest ones (Euro 6).
The future depends on the limiting of the environmental pollution and certainly the EC will make efforts to promote the use of electric cars.
An interview for “Manager” magazine, issue 12, December 2021 - January 2022
